The Fall of Syria

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Who would have thought that in less than a week, Syria would fall. The toppling of the Assad regime following more than 50 years of brutal dictatorship was a “victory for the entire Islamic nation,” said Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of the rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which was formed out of an Al-Qaeda affiliate. Assad’s removal was met with jubilation by Syrians at home and abroad.

 

The Israel Defense Force conducted over 350 precise aerial strikes in 48 hours neutralizing strategic weapons stockpiles across Syria, including bombing Assad’s chemical arsenal, destroying his armored and missile forces, and sinking his navy. These measures reduce the risk of dangerous weapons falling into the hands of hostile actors that could be turned against civilians, both in Israel and in Syria.

 

The reason Israel was able to do this so easily and quickly is that there were no Syrian defense forces preventing it.

 

It is way too early to tell what the future holds for Syria and its relations with countries throughout the Middle East. However, according to all reports, the alliance between Iran/Syria/Hezbollah has been severely weakened.

 

Syrian rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani said he "has no intentions to enter wars in the future" and primarily wanted to rid Syria of Iran and Hezbollah. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel “wants relations with the new regime in Syria.” That could be cause for optimism, but with an Al-Qaeda offshoot militia near its borders, Israel will be wary.

 

Michael Koplow from the Israel Policy Forum writes, “The biggest benefit to Assad’s downfall is the end of Iranian dominance in Syria, though Iran will undoubtedly look to keep a foothold there any way it can. The biggest risk is that the chaos spills over into Jordan, which is not only about what happens in Syria generally exploding outward but about the nature of the groups now in charge there. Jordan has a newly enlarged parliamentary contingent of Sunni Islamists and a homegrown Sunni extremism problem, and they now have an example next door of a potentially new Islamist state that will serve as a source of motivation to the groups in Jordan that would like to see the Hashemite monarchy disappear. Jordan must now also deal with a newly volatile border region and guard against adding to its current population of over two million refugees depending on the direction things go in Syria.”

 

This can become a problem for Israel. Security cooperation between Israel and Jordan remains strong, yet that border is the longest and least defended. The stability of Jordan, whose population is over 60% Palestinian, is a key for Israel. If the monarchy falls – whether to Iran or Sunni jihadists -- Israel’s security challenges in the West Bank will grow exponentially.

 

Israel is quick to emphasize that they are not interfering with the internal events in Syria. Their interest is border security and the safety of Israeli civilians. IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi stated, “The primary focus is observing Iran's movements and interests. Our secondary focus is on local factions who are taking control of the area, assessing their actions, behavior, and deterrence levels, and ensuring they do not mistakenly direct their actions toward us.”

 

The fall of Bashar al-Assad presents many favorable opportunities but also multiple dangers. To take advantage of this historic moment, Israel, the Middle East, and world must find ways to harness the opportunities and deflect the dangers.

 

I encourage you to read this excellent interview with Amos Yadlin, one of Israel’s preeminent military officials and strategists, about the fall of Syria.

 

All of this has ramped up news about a potential ceasefire agreement and return of hostages. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Prime Minister Netanyahu “is ready to do a deal.” It is still too early to tell what may happen since past negotiations have failed, but yesterday Hamas agreed to two of Israel’s key demands for a ceasefire in Gaza:

 

  • Hamas agreed to allow Israeli forces to remain in Gaza temporarily when the fighting stops and to a gradual withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border. Hamas also reportedly agreed it would not have any involvement in running the Palestinian side of the Rafah Crossing between Egypt and Gaza.

 

  • Hamas also handed over a list of hostages whom it would release under a ceasefire pact, something it has not done since the first truce in the conflict last year. The list included US citizens, women, older hostages, those with medical conditions, and the names of five hostages who have been confirmed dead.

 

All of this is happening as Prime Minister Netanyahu goes on trial. Let us pray for the best.

 

Chanukah starts the evening of December 25. Here is a link to all the Chanukah happenings around Greater Portland. Check it out!

 

To close, I was grateful and surprised by the number of responses I received to my email from last Friday. Who knew there were so many diehard General Hospital (Luke and Laura) fans in Portland? I heard from plenty who chastised me for watching Guiding Light.

 

Shabbat shalom.

 

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